\\China Prepares for Renewed U.S. Rivalry with Trump’s Return\\

Mr. Trump, then the president, meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., in 2017.

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Beijing is gearing up for a fresh chapter in its complex relationship with the United States as Donald J. Trump, known for his unpredictable style, returns to the White House. Following years of strategic competition and cautious diplomacy under President Biden, Chinese leaders anticipate heightened challenges and possible volatility in U.S.-China relations.

A passer-by in Beijing on Wednesday watching a state news broadcast of Donald J. Trump declaring victory in the U.S. presidential election.

During his first term, Trump embraced aggressive tactics like imposing tariffs on Chinese exports, sparking a trade war that shifted global markets and strained ties with Beijing. Trump’s hardline stance, paired with his penchant for mixing threats with praise, left Chinese officials wary. In his recent campaign, Trump reiterated his willingness to escalate measures against China, especially if Beijing were to assert control over Taiwan. Yet, he has also publicly complimented President Xi Jinping, calling him “brilliant” and praising his control over China.

China’s approach to Trump’s second presidency will likely be cautious and measured, acknowledging that bipartisan sentiment in the U.S. aligns around countering China’s global ambitions. Xi’s administration has signaled its expectation that Washington will continue its competitive stance, regardless of leadership. “Xi Jinping is an unsentimental leader with a dark interpretation of America’s intentions toward China,” said Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution. Beijing anticipates that any warmth in leader-to-leader relations will not soften the U.S.'s approach.

To prepare, China has been cultivating relationships with U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific and beyond. In recent months, Beijing struck a deal with India to ease border tensions, engaged in diplomacy with Japan and Britain, and eased trade restrictions with Australia. These moves reflect a strategy to counterbalance anticipated U.S. pressures by strengthening diplomatic and economic ties elsewhere.

However, China’s economic challenges may limit its flexibility. China’s economy, affected by a property crisis and slowed growth, is weaker now than it was during Trump’s first term, possibly hindering its capacity for a prolonged trade or tariff war. Some Chinese experts recommend a restrained approach; Jia Qingguo, a professor at Peking University, suggests Beijing should avoid unnecessary military conflicts and focus on internal strength to withstand any escalated competition.

While China is pushing forward with its self-reliance initiatives—investing in advanced chip technology and building its military—its economic vulnerabilities may make it more circumspect in responding to U.S. provocations.

China has adapted to various U.S. leadership styles, responding to Trump’s “Wolf Warrior” approach with bold, assertive diplomacy and countering Biden’s alliance-building by fostering closer ties with developing nations and Russia. With the Biden administration’s approach based on collective security and democratic alliances, Beijing often portrayed itself as a leader of the Global South, advancing its influence among emerging economies.

In recent years, U.S.-China relations hit a low following the U.S. downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon, though efforts toward stability increased with high-level meetings between U.S. and Chinese diplomats. The future of such diplomatic engagement remains uncertain under Trump’s renewed leadership, depending in part on his Cabinet appointments. Trump’s choices could signal a more transactional or ideological stance toward China.

Some aspects of Trump’s agenda may offer China potential advantages. During his first term, Trump prioritized trade over human rights issues, an approach that some believe could benefit China in diplomatic negotiations. Additionally, Trump’s preference for “America First” policies could weaken traditional U.S. alliances, creating openings for China to expand its global influence.

However, Trump’s lack of interest in coordinated international diplomacy may also lead to a less predictable U.S. approach, making it difficult for Beijing to rely on any established patterns. On Wednesday, Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on his electoral victory and emphasized that constructive cooperation would benefit both nations. China’s scholars have advised early direct communication with Trump to clarify mutual expectations and mitigate potential conflicts.As Trump returns to the White House, Beijing is taking a multifaceted approach to prepare. Wu Xinbo, a dean at Fudan University, noted that Trump’s first presidency left Chinese officials unprepared for his style. This time, China is bracing for both negotiation and confrontation, recognizing that balancing these dynamics will be essential. With an emphasis on direct diplomacy, economic resilience, and strategic alliances, China is preparing for a challenging but pivotal era in U.S.-China relations, seeking to navigate an uncertain future with both caution and resolve.